AGP Executive Report

Ebola Watch: Brazil is investigating suspected Ebola cases after travelers returned from DR Congo and Uganda, with health authorities in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro running tests as officials warn diagnoses are still under review. Labor Policy: The ILO begins final talks in Geneva on binding employment standards for platform workers, with the key fight over whether minimum wage and benefits should apply to all workers or vary by employee vs self-employed status. Green Trade & Shipping: Brazil, Norway and the Netherlands presented a feasibility study for South Atlantic green shipping corridors, targeting deepsea routes between Europe and Brazil and assessing net-zero fuels like green ammonia and methanol. Open Finance: BIS and GLEIF showcased how Legal Entity Identifiers can streamline cross-border KYB/AML checks via open finance interconnectivity, aiming to cut onboarding friction for SMEs. Brazil Economy: Reports point to a mild Q1 rebound and growth pickup, while investors keep an eye on inflation and fiscal risks.

Ebola Watch: WHO chief Tedros visited DR Congo’s Bunia and urged early care and safe burials as Brazil investigates two suspected cases—one in São Paulo (after a Congo trip) and another in Rio (malaria-positive traveler), while WHO said five patients have recovered from the rare Bundibugyo strain. Fuel & Inflation Policy: Brazil extended emergency measures to contain fuel prices amid war-driven volatility, as analysts warn oil shocks could keep inflation pressure elevated. Amazon Climate Risk: New research says parts of the Brazilian Amazon are already seeing longer dry seasons and worse drought, raising fire risk and threatening forest recovery. Digital Gaming Outlook: DigiPlus said it expects a stronger Q2 as it stabilizes results, prepares to relaunch Brazil operations in June, and targets South Africa expansion in 2027. Trade & Agriculture: Brazil’s rare-earth push and fertilizer/agribusiness pressures remain in focus as global supply disruptions ripple through costs and production.

Fuel Price Shield: Brazil extended Lula’s emergency fuel measures for two more months, keeping a diesel subsidy of 1.12 reais per liter (about $0.20) and shifting to a new federal compensation mechanism for refiners/importers until July 31, aiming to blunt Middle East war-driven oil volatility. US–Brazil Tensions: Brazil hit back at the U.S. move to label the PCC and Comando Vermelho as foreign terrorist organizations, warning against “external interference” and stressing cooperation on anti–organized crime. Brazil Economy Watch: Separate coverage points to Brazil’s GDP growth rebounding in Q1 (about 1.1%), alongside ongoing debate over inflation control and policy credibility. Amazon Health Crisis: Research highlights how illegal gold mining in the Yanomami territory has been linked to a sharp malaria surge, underscoring the business risks of weak enforcement in the Amazon. World Cup Business Angle: FIFA’s 2026 tournament is also being framed as a major global betting and consumer-sales magnet, with brands rolling out promotions ahead of kickoff.

US–Brazil Crime Clash: Brazil hit back at the U.S. State Department’s plan to label PCC and Comando Vermelho as foreign terrorist organizations, warning it could mean “external interference” and arguing the move is more political than practical for fighting crime. Macroeconomy: Brazil’s economy is showing signs of rebound, with reports pointing to growth around 1.1% in Q1 and a slight expansion in the first quarter. Climate Policy: Brazil advanced the Emissions Trading System with new CTCP resolutions that set internal rules and create working groups to support implementation. Energy & Industry: Europe’s renewables push is credited with cutting fossil fuel import costs by about $51.4bn in 2025, with more savings expected as generation hits record highs. World Cup Business: FIFA’s 2026 tournament is already driving major spending and logistics planning, including venue and mobility details for the U.S.-Canada-Mexico host run. Trade & Supply Chains: The week also featured renewed focus on trade frictions and supply dependencies, including EU moves to toughen action on rising Chinese imports.

Brazil Economy: IBGE says GDP grew 1.1% in Q1 2026 vs Q4 2025, with services up 0.5%, industry up 1%, and agriculture up 2%; household spending rose 1% and investment (gross fixed capital formation) climbed 3.5%, while exports fell 1.7% and imports rose 4.4%. Jobs: The Ministry of Labor reports 85,888 formal jobs created in April, down sharply from March and from April 2025, with services, construction and industry adding jobs while agriculture and commerce shed positions. Workweek Reform: Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies approved a shift to a 40-hour workweek, setting up new debate over labor policy ahead of the election cycle. US–Brazil Crime Row: President Lula condemned the US designation of Brazil’s Red Command and PCC gangs as terrorist groups, calling it a sovereignty and cooperation risk. Coffee & Sugar: Coffee prices slid as forecasts pointed to drier weather in Brazil and harvest resuming; sugar rose on El Niño-linked monsoon fears for India. Trade Talks: Brazil and Suriname will negotiate in the second half of 2026 to expand a currently small, product-heavy trade relationship.

Rare Earths & Geopolitics: Viridis Mining says it will sell rare earths from Brazil’s Colossus project to Europe and North America, not China—an explicit challenge to Beijing’s dominance in mining and refining. Amazon Gold Rush: In Pará’s Kayapó territories, indigenous leaders say illegal miners are pushing deeper as gold prices stay high, raising fears of armed clashes and renewed pressure on protected areas. Workweek Reform: Brazil’s lower house approved a constitutional amendment moving to a 40-hour, five-day workweek, aligning with wider Latin American trends and setting up a major labor-policy fight ahead of implementation. Stablecoin Crackdown: Brazil’s central bank banned fintechs from settling cross-border payments using stablecoins/crypto under Resolution 561, which could raise costs and slow remittances. Competition Watch: UK’s CMA cleared Suzano and Kimberly-Clark’s $3.4bn tissue joint venture, paving the way for a Netherlands-based global tissue platform. City Culture Funding: Rio de Janeiro unveiled a R$225m investment package through 2028 to expand film/TV and broader cultural grants. Cybersecurity: Researchers warn attackers are abusing Adobe Document Cloud trust via fake delivery pages to deploy remote-access malware like ScreenConnect. Tourism Outlook: WTTC forecasts Central & South America travel and tourism to outgrow the global average in 2026, with international spending rising across the region.

Rare Earths Supply Pivot: Viridis Mining says it’s in advanced talks with U.S. and European buyers for its Colossus mine in Minas Gerais, explicitly avoiding China to secure better pricing as Western governments race to de-risk critical minerals. Public Finance Rescue: Brazil and the Federal District struck a loan deal to support state lender BRB, using district revenue flows as collateral and tied to fiscal adjustment steps after losses linked to Banco Master. Tourism Demand: Foreign tourist spending in Brazil rose 9.2% in the first four months to BRL 20.2bn, with April up to BRL 4.19bn, as the government pushes new airline routes with China Eastern. Jobs Signal Softness: April formal job creation totaled 85,888 net new positions—far below expectations—marking the weakest April since 2020. Crime Crackdown: Prosecutors launched a mega-operation targeting fraud, money laundering and tax evasion tied to criminal gangs, in a politically sensitive run-up to October elections. AI Rights Watch: Amnesty warns major tech firms used unlawful web scraping to train generative AI, raising privacy and human-rights concerns. Workweek Reform: Brazil lawmakers approved a landmark shift from a 6x1 work pattern to a 40-hour week, drawing warnings from economists and business groups.

Workweek Overhaul: Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies advanced a constitutional reform to cut the workweek from 44 to 40 hours and guarantee two rest days, a major pre-election win for Lula that would affect 35M+ workers. Amazon Oil Pivot: Lula is restarting Amazon Basin oil drilling after a decade-long pause, with Petrobras planning about R$2.5bn in investments for dozens of new wells in Urucu—framed as balancing development and environmental transition. Central Bank Watch: Brazil’s central bank chief is weighing two women for Copom vacancies, signaling potential shifts in monetary policy leadership. Inflation & External Accounts: Brazil’s inflation rose 0.62% in May (highest since 2016), while the country posted a $1.7bn external deficit in April. Payments & Fintech: Ipsos launched a Brazil-ready AI product testing platform, and Mastercard pushed processors after a Brazilian fintech collapse. Social Impact Business: Bracell said 73% of its social-impact projects are led by women, beating its 2030 target. Trade & Agriculture: Brazil’s beef exports rose 5.3% in April, while wheat milling hit record demand.

Monetary Policy: Brazil’s central bank chief Gabriel Galipolo is weighing two women to fill Copom vacancies, with Cecilia Machado (BOCOM BBM) and Marina Copola (CVM board) among the leading contenders, potentially boosting women’s representation on the rate-setting committee. Trade & Industry: A CNI survey says Brazil’s high-tech exports rose 7.7% in 2025 to $9.1B, but they still lag far behind low-tech exports ($130.7B), underscoring the push to diversify into medium-to-high and high-tech sectors. Infrastructure & Environment: Lula’s government will invest $75M in the BR-319 highway through the Amazon, while also unveiling an environmental protection plan meant to limit deforestation risks. Capital Markets: Azul is approved to list on NYSE American, targeting June 1 for ADS trading under ticker “AZUL,” with an eventual NYSE up-list planned for early July. Public Safety: President Lula celebrated the Atlas of Violence 2026 showing Brazil hit its lowest homicide rate on record in 2024, while noting violence levels remain high. Digital Payments: Capa integrated BRL1 (real-backed stablecoin) into its Polygon-based cross-border payments stack, aiming to move funds without routing through dollars or correspondent banks.

World Cup Buzz: FIFA’s 2026 official song is out—Shakira returns with “Dai Dai” alongside Burna Boy and Ed Sheeran, setting the soundtrack for the North America tournament. Brazil-Linked Crime: India’s Gujarat ATS and Coast Guard seized nearly 119kg of cocaine from the Arabian Sea, tied to a Brazil-linked route. Phosphate Pressure: Mosaic is curtailing phosphate production and withdrawing 2026 guidance after record sulfur prices and supply tightness—Brazil output is also being scaled back. Mining & Power in Brazil: Brazil Potash signed a 28-year BOOT MoU with Gera Center for Amazon energy supply, aiming to cut upfront costs and secure construction power. Tech Earnings: Kuaishou says Kling AI revenue jumped over 300% to 650m yuan, boosting its “second growth curve,” with Brazil among key markets. Sports Business: South Florida cities are budgeting tens of millions for World Cup security and events, while FIFA keeps most direct revenue.