AGP Executive Report

Brazil Election & Courts: Thousands of Brazilians rallied for Flávio Bolsonaro on Independence Day, using Supreme Court tensions to attack Lula and Justice Alexandre de Moraes, as polls show a tight race. Beef Prices & Politics: Lula’s “steak for all” promise is backfiring as picanha prices creep higher, giving Bolsonaro a campaign talking point. EU Trade Shock (Meat): The EU’s antimicrobial-driven suspension of Brazilian meat imports is now in force, with Brazil signaling possible reciprocal measures. Crypto Banking Shift: Brazilian banks are expanding crypto offerings for consumers while keeping crypto assets off balance sheets, highlighting a regulatory and risk-separation approach. Rare Earths Push: Meteoric Resources advanced its Caldeira ionic clay feasibility study, while other rare-earth projects keep moving through permits and drilling. Energy & Shipping: HMM signed a 25-year, 4.7 trillion won shipping deal with Vale, and oil-market jitters tied to China’s demand rebound are lifting crude prices. AI Capacity Building: Brazil’s public-sector AI director warned that without local capacity, AI could deepen dependency, as Global South countries meet in Beijing.

EU Beef Ban Hits Brazil Exports: The EU suspended Brazilian beef and poultry imports over antibiotic and compliance concerns, with UK farmers warning any surplus could pressure prices at home. Brazil Politics & Markets: On Independence Day, Lula defended Brazil’s sovereignty and the Pix payment system amid US tariff pressure, while opposition figures plan street rallies tied to the Supreme Court crisis. Rare Earths Push: Rainbow Rare Earths advanced Brazil’s Uberaba rare-earth project with a preliminary feasibility study for processing phosphogypsum waste, aiming to scale separation of key rare earth oxides. Telecom Deal: Anatel approved the transfer of Oi’s fixed telephony business to Metodo, a step in restructuring Brazil’s telecom landscape. Mining Safety Tech: Hexagon said it will acquire the remaining stake in ZG Technology, consolidating handheld 3D scanning platforms used across mining operations. Energy & Trade: Brazil’s 2027 pre-salt oil auction is flagged as potentially bringing $4.4B, while broader commodity trade remains sensitive to geopolitics and shipping costs.

Pix & Cross-Border Payments: Brazil’s Pix is getting a potential European bridge: the ECB and Banco Central do Brasil are assessing a link between Europe’s TIPS instant-payment system and Pix, with a pilot discussed as early as 2028. Critical Minerals & Permits: A new policy shift is making permits a direct input into mining project economics, as Brazil tightens scrutiny of critical-minerals deals while other countries use processing rules and defined permitting paths. Lithium Drilling Push: Perpetual Resources is mobilising for a 1,500m diamond program at its Igrejinha project in Brazil, targeting the Mauricio and Morro Grande lithium prospects. Brazilian Supreme Court Turmoil: Brazil’s Supreme Court crisis is deepening, with justices clashing over election and a probe tied to a failed bank. Markets & Rates: Latam equities slipped as stronger US jobs data revived Fed rate-hike bets, lifting the dollar and cooling risk appetite. Streaming Infrastructure in Brazil: Broadpeak expanded its CDNaaS in Brazil with seven new HyperPoPs to boost live-stream capacity and performance. Cybersecurity Watch: Kaspersky says it blocked 75m attacks in APAC in 1H 2026, including 250k ransomware incidents. EU Meat Ban: The EU’s suspension of Brazilian meat imports over antibiotic concerns is moving into force.

Pix Under US Tariff Pressure: Brazil’s Lula says he will defend Pix in talks with Donald Trump at the UN, arguing the instant-payment system is “how good it is,” as Washington cites Pix in its tariff dispute. Sigma Lithium Mine Halt: A Brazilian judge ordered suspension of environmental licenses and mining at Sigma Lithium’s Grota do Cirilo project after a lawsuit by Minas Gerais quilombola communities, citing risks and consultation obligations. BRICS Momentum, GST Timing: India’s BRICS summit is pushing India’s GST Council meeting from Sept 12 to Oct 7, while iBRICS in New Delhi (Sep 12-13) targets sovereign and family-office capital for infrastructure, energy and digital projects. Food Prices Watch: The UN FAO reports global food prices rose to the highest since late 2022, with sugar up 11.9% and cereals also climbing amid weather and conflict-driven supply risks. Brazil Election Court Crisis: Brazil’s Supreme Court feud between justices tied to the Banco Master probe is intensifying uncertainty ahead of the presidential race. Mining ESG Gets Tougher: A broader trend shows ESG compliance shifting from reports to permit access, with water and Indigenous rights becoming harder hurdles for mining approvals.

Brazil-US Trade & Payments: President Lula said he will defend Brazil’s Pix instant payments system in talks with Donald Trump, arguing the U.S. has unfairly targeted Pix in the tariff dispute. Mining & Environment: A Brazilian court ordered Sigma Mineração to suspend environmental licenses and halt extraction at its Grota do Cirilo lithium project in Minas Gerais, citing potential impacts on quilombola communities. Crypto Markets: New 13F filings show a Brazil-based asset manager, Wealth High Governance Asset Management, is the top disclosed holder in 21Shares’ Hyperliquid-linked THYP ETF, with total institutional exposure around $75M. Amazon & Indigenous Rights: Lula met Leonardo DiCaprio in Brasilia to discuss Amazon deforestation cuts and new indigenous reserves, including a proposed Tropical Forests Forever Fund. Sports & Business Spotlight: Brazil’s Luisa Stefani and Luisa Stefani advanced to the U.S. Open doubles round of 16, while the week also highlighted Brazil-linked business themes from global trade and finance.

Green Energy Diplomacy: Brazil is looking to deepen cooperation with India on renewables, biofuels and clean mobility, with officials pointing to decades of Brazilian know-how as both countries push their low-carbon transitions. Climate-Health Preparedness: Brazil unveiled AdaptaSUS, a 2026–2027 plan to tackle health emergencies linked to El Niño, aiming to strengthen SUS readiness, emergency supplies and local response capacity. Food Prices Watch: The UN’s FAO says global wheat and sugar prices climbed again in August, with wheat up 2.6% on the month and sugar up 11.9%, driven by weather, war-related supply disruptions and shifting trade policies. BRICS Judicial Cooperation: India’s CJI Surya Kant urged BRICS to act like a “living Nalanda University,” promoting healthy disagreement and faster, more predictable justice across member judiciaries. India–Brazil Trade Momentum: Brazil’s consul general in Mumbai said two-way trade with India has grown tenfold in 20 years to over $15 billion, calling it a “warm-up” for the upcoming BRICS summit. Brazil Business & Innovation: Nestlé plans a major investment in Brazil’s nutrition business, signaling continued appetite for growth in the country’s consumer and health-focused markets.

Brazil-US Courtroom Drama: Brazil’s Supreme Court is roiled again as justices Alexandre de Moraes and Andre Mendonca move toward major sanctions in the Banco Master fraud fallout, with messages involving disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro and election-year political pressure adding fuel. Global Diplomacy: Brazil’s foreign minister S. Jaishankar is set to address the UN General Assembly high-level session on Sept. 26, with the 81st UNGA opening Sept. 8 amid ongoing conflicts and rising food and fuel costs. Food & Trade: Trump signed beef-focused executive orders that target dominant meatpackers, revisit country-of-origin labeling, and expand competition—while signaling limited beef imports that include Brazil. Food Prices Watch: The FAO says global food prices rose in August to the highest since late 2022, driven by weather shocks and war-related supply disruptions. Payments & Tech: Revolut won conditional OCC approval for a US bank charter, aiming for a first-half 2027 launch and potentially broader services including stablecoins. Maritime Climate Policy: IMO talks on its Net-Zero Framework continue in London, with Brazil among proposal submitters as shipping decarbonization rules face pushback.

EU Meat Ban Hits Brazil Exports: The EU’s suspension of Brazilian animal-product imports (beef, pork, chicken, honey, fish, eggs and casings) took effect Sept. 3 over antimicrobial-control concerns. The European Commission says exports can resume once Brazil proves compliance, while Brazil signals possible “reciprocal measures” if talks don’t deliver a “satisfactory solution.” Food Prices Watch: The UN FAO reports global food prices rose in August to the highest since late 2022, driven by weather shocks and war-related supply risks, with grain and sugar particularly pressured. Brazil Fiscal Pressure: Brazil’s debt outlook is worsening as the cost of borrowing stays high; the TCU ordered clearer 10-year debt projections under both fiscal target scenarios. Critical Minerals Push: Brazil’s Senate approved a rare-earth/critical-minerals framework law, aiming to unlock long-term projects as China’s expanded export controls suspension nears expiry. Energy & Industry: Constellation Oil says it’s not negotiating Petrobras rig-contract postponements. Business & Tax: Brazil’s Congress approved a supplementary bill with “riders” that could expand tax benefits, including for data-center services (Redata). LatAm EV Shift: A report says 2026 is the tipping point for electric light commercial vehicles across Latin America, with Brazil leading electrified light-vehicle sales.

Cloud Expansion: Alibaba Cloud launched its first South America cloud region in Brazil, adding two São Paulo data centers to serve low-latency AI and cloud workloads with local data governance. Critical Minerals & Politics: Vale is shelving an IPO of its critical-minerals unit Vale Base Metals after political pushback over whether Brazil could lose control of strategic assets. EU Trade Shock: The EU moved to suspend Brazilian animal-product imports over antibiotic concerns, leaving exporters scrambling as the bloc is a key destination for beef and poultry. Payments & Regulation: Revolut won conditional approval for a U.S. national bank charter, but the OCC held back four product lines pending extra sign-offs. Finance for Growth: EIB Global and Banco do Brasil unlocked €500 million for women entrepreneurs and sustainable development in the Amazon. Agri & Climate Risk: El Niño is intensifying climate extremes, with impacts already showing up in regional food and energy planning. BRICS Momentum: Indonesia backed next week’s BRICS summit in New Delhi, pushing for concrete outcomes amid global fragmentation.

Brazil Election Watch: A new AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll shows Lula’s lead over Flávio Bolsonaro narrowing ahead of Oct. 4, with a runoff projected at 47.1% vs 42.6%, as weak economic data and a contentious TSE ruling sharpen the race. Trade & Agriculture: Brazil’s exports to Iraq fell 37.5% in Q2 to $208M, led by sugar and live animals, while Farm Progress Show discussions point to a possible pause in ag land expansion amid higher input costs and fertilizer tightness. Banking & Fintech: Nu Holdings (Nubank) topped $1B in quarterly GAAP net income, reporting 139M customers across Brazil, Mexico and Colombia—another sign of momentum in Brazil’s digital banking push. Industry & Economy: IBGE data shows industrial production rose just 0.2% in July, too weak to reverse prior declines, reflecting high rates and household debt pressure. Cyber & Compliance: A report flags 412,000 The Town 2025 ticket-buyer records being sold on the dark web, raising fraud and identity-risk concerns. Energy & Climate: COP17 Mayors’ Forum in Mongolia backed stronger local government roles in land resilience and drought resilience, feeding into the next UN desertification talks in Egypt.

Climate & Risk: The UN warns the world is set to breach the 1.5°C warming threshold within the next few years, with “no good outcomes” above it—raising stakes for food, coasts, and extreme weather. Energy Transition: Brazil’s green-hydrogen push gets a boost as White Martins/Linde starts a commercial plant in Jacareí, while bigger projects like Morro Pintado are still in the pipeline. Food & Trade: The EU begins its antibiotic-driven ban on Brazilian beef and poultry, and the UK asks Brazil for “urgent information and assurances” while promising a risk-based review. Brazil Politics & Courts: A Supreme Court justice who jailed Bolsonaro faces fresh pressure after documents allege links to disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro, intensifying scrutiny of Brazil’s judiciary. Business & Industry: Embraer marks delivery of its 2,000th E-Jet to Azul, a milestone for regional aviation connectivity. Digital & Security: Brazil’s payment systems are targeted by AI-assisted malware, while the central bank prepares crypto monitoring after a major cyberattack. Sports Economy: St. Louis City sets an MLS record by paying $12M for Colorado’s Rafael Navarro.

Brazil Economy Watch: IBGE data show investment in Brazil slowed in Q2, with modest growth driven mainly by machinery and equipment imports tied to mining, while the 12-month trend still edges down. Energy & Industry: Burckhardt Compression won orders for Petrobras’ Boaventura Energy Complex in Rio de Janeiro—six process gas compressor packages supporting natural gas processing plus refining and lubricant units. Payments & Travel Finance: dLocal partnered with Alternative Airlines to let travelers in emerging markets book flights and pay over time, aiming to fit Brazil’s parcelado-style demand for installments. Cybersecurity: Check Point says a Chinese-speaking gang turned Brazilian government and education sites into infrastructure for an SEO fraud campaign, using custom Apache modules to route visitors to phishing pages. Agribusiness & Trade: EU feed makers warn drought heatwaves are tightening EU forage and maize supplies, raising pressure on cattle feed availability. Elections & Digital Campaigning: Brazil’s electoral court allowed candidate Renan Santos to resume his online campaign and release electoral funds after earlier suspensions. Corporate Moves: Unifique agreed to buy 3D Telecom to expand Santa Catarina’s fiber footprint, adding 10,259 active connections. Finance & Regulation: Discussions are resurfacing on whether Brazil should adjust its inflation target, adding uncertainty for the Central Bank’s fight against inflation and potentially higher rates.

G20 Watch: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned at the G20 that subsidy-driven, export-heavy imbalances are straining workers and supply chains, pushing countries toward weaker domestic demand and more global friction. Brazil Economy: Brazil’s Q2 2026 GDP growth came in at 0.5%, with analysts pointing to debt and high rates as headwinds. Agribusiness: Brazilian soybean farmers are slowing planting after fertilizer and input costs stayed elevated, with analysts expecting acreage to flatten rather than keep expanding. Trade & Food Safety: The EU suspended Brazilian meat imports over safety concerns, raising pressure on exporters and forcing producers to adjust compliance. Finance & Regulation: Brazil’s central bank is preparing a crypto monitoring system after a reported $180M cyberattack, as regulators tighten oversight. Infrastructure & Airports: Fraport Brasil took over Jericoacoara Airport operations under the AmpliAR program, adding a third airport to its Brazil portfolio and planning modernization. Legal & Governance: Brazil’s Supreme Court justice Alexandre de Moraes is under investigation tied to a multimillion-dollar contract involving his wife’s law firm and Banco Master. Payments & Fintech: Privy expanded wallet APIs to support fiat-to-stablecoin flows, with Brazil PIX included for deposits and payouts.

US-Brazil Tariff Clash: Brazil’s foreign and trade ministries again rejected U.S. tariffs as “unjustified” under Section 301, while both sides agreed to keep negotiating via technical talks and a new ministerial meeting. Banking Leadership: Febraban named Leandro Vilain to replace Isaac Sidney as executive head, with a planned transition through end-October. Macro Watch: Brazil’s Q2 GDP grew 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (2.0% year-on-year), led by agriculture, but the slowdown underscores the drag from high rates ahead of the October election. Trade & Food Pressure: EU moves to suspend Brazilian meat imports over compliance concerns, adding to uncertainty for exporters. Ports & Logistics: Maersk’s Aliança begins regular operations through APM Terminals Suape in Pernambuco, boosting Suape’s container capacity. Energy/Industry: Kohler shut its only Brazilian factory in Minas Gerais as it pivots toward premium products. Local Economy: Rock in Rio is projected to generate R$3.36bn for Rio, with major spillovers for bars, restaurants and tourism. Sports Business: Barcelona signed Brazilian striker Gabriel Jesus from Arsenal, while transfer speculation around Julian Alvarez continues.

EU Meat Shock: The EU suspended Brazilian meat imports over safety concerns, adding pressure to an already tense global beef market and raising compliance questions for Brazil’s exporters. Organized Crime Push: Brazil’s proposal for an anti-mafia agency modeled on Italy’s aims to coordinate action against PCC and Comando Vermelho and tighten oversight of corruption and digital infrastructure. Health-Drug Black Market: Brazil’s weight-loss drug boom is fueling a growing smuggling trade, with customs seizures showing injections hidden in everyday items and compounded products taking a large share of the market. Carbon Finance Data: Sylvera launched the Open Carbon Data Project for the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, backed by major institutions, to improve trusted carbon measurement and unlock more investment. Trade & Tariffs Fallout: U.S. moves to adjust beef trimmings tariffs could still leave grocery prices largely unchanged, while broader tariff uncertainty continues to reshape cross-border food flows. Aviation & Africa: Embraer is targeting Africa with smaller aircraft and cargo conversions, arguing the continent’s low share of global air traffic signals room for growth. Policy U-Turns: A broader commentary highlights how sudden policy reversals—like tariff swings—create uncertainty for businesses and planning.

Fiscal Policy Watch: Brazil’s finance minister said some social programs could shift from “hard entitlements” to more flexible “flow control,” aiming to tighten oversight and give policymakers room in the federal budget. Public Finance & Growth: The 2027 budget bill is set to be sent to Congress with mandatory spending projected to grow slower than the spending cap adjustment, but debt dynamics remain a concern. Urban Climate Transition: Rio de Janeiro is seeking BNDES-linked Climate Fund support to decarbonize its bus fleet, targeting a full fleet renewal by 2028 with biofuel and electric vehicles after the Sistema Rio auction. Child Safety Online: Brazil is pushing stricter rules for minors’ social media use, adding to the global debate ahead of the BRICS summit on child online protection. Animal Protein Standards: COBEA released an English version of its animal welfare report, spotlighting progress and uneven challenges across poultry, swine, and cattle. Business & Tech: UBS Optimus Foundation launched in Brazil with $10m to back “impact unicorns,” while Cardano’s public proof layer went live inside Blockforce’s traceability platform with 500,000+ records anchored. Commodities: Coffee prices jumped in July as Brazil weather woes and a stronger El Niño outlook tightened supplies, per the ICO.