AGP Executive Report

Aviation Watch: Airlines meeting in Rio say the Middle East war is pushing jet fuel costs sharply higher, while aircraft delivery delays force carriers to keep older planes in service longer—hurting margins even as demand holds up. Food & Farming: The FAO reports global food prices were mostly flat in May, but cereals rose on higher fuel and fertilizer costs; for Brazil, fertilizer price spikes tied to Hormuz risk are squeezing farmers’ edge over U.S. rivals. Trade & Tariffs: The U.S. is moving toward broad Section 301 forced-labor tariffs, proposing 10%–12.5% duties across 60 economies—an escalation that could ripple through Brazil-linked supply chains. Digital Finance: Stablecoins are gaining real-world use in emerging markets, with Binance data pointing to growing adoption for salaries, remittances, and payments—Brazil included. Energy & Climate: China is leading low-carbon industrial project funding, while Brazil’s SAF push is highlighted as aviation looks for greener fuel supply. World Cup Business: With the 2026 tournament starting soon, Brazil’s football economy chatter is heating up alongside global viewing and fan-spend planning.

Brazil’s Public Investment Push: Brazil’s states and the Federal District lifted investments 37% in real terms in Jan–Apr 2026 vs. the same period last year, reaching R$20.8bn—the highest for the period since at least 2018—while current expenses rose 4.5%, raising questions about future spending and debt pressure. U.S.-China Tech Squeeze: Two U.S. lawmakers proposed blocking Chinese-connected connected vehicles from entering via Canada and Mexico, citing risks from data collection and potential remote access. World Cup Business Watch: FIFA’s 2026 tournament kicks off June 11 with a 48-team, 104-match format across the US, Canada and Mexico, plus expanded VAR powers and a full slate of new rules that could affect match management and betting dynamics. Aviation Cost Shock: IATA-linked coverage flags that fuel-price pressure from the Iran war is still reshaping airline profitability and capacity decisions. Health & Pharma Growth Signals: New market forecasts point to fast expansion in corporate training, biopharmaceuticals, inhalers, and pharmacy management systems—useful for investors tracking Brazil’s healthcare modernization pipeline.

Aviation in Rio: IATA’s 82nd AGM in Brazil is spotlighting a tougher year for airlines: passenger numbers are expected to rise in 2026, but profits are forecast to be cut in half as fuel costs and Middle East disruptions bite. Embraer-China push: Embraer says it expects an eventual breakthrough for its E2 jets in China, positioning the E190-E2 and E195-E2 as a fit between China’s smaller and larger narrowbodies. World Cup squad shock: Brazil’s Wesley is ruled out with a thigh adductor injury, and Éderson is called up—timed with a reported Manchester United move. Brazil in China finance: Brazil plans its first “panda bond” issuance in yuan during a June China visit, aiming to diversify away from dollar dependence. Food and climate risk: Researchers warn that simultaneous crop stress across major breadbaskets is becoming more likely as climate change increases global food-system fragility. Marine science: A Brazil-coast expedition confirmed more than two dozen new marine species in days using advanced onboard imaging and DNA sequencing. Humanitarian Cuba: UN briefings describe Cuba’s health crisis worsening, with delayed surgeries and medicine shortages tied to power and supply constraints.

Family Business Succession: Boston entrepreneur Rony Jabour will keynote “Build the Talk” in Sorriso, Mato Grosso on June 7, focusing on how Brazilian family firms can plan leadership handovers and protect long-term legacy. Indigenous Education Milestone: Brazil created its first federal Indigenous university (UNIND), signed by President Lula on May 28, aiming to center Indigenous languages and knowledge in higher education. Aviation & Costs: IATA’s Rio summit opens amid Iran-war fuel shocks and airspace disruptions, with airlines also squeezed by Boeing/Airbus delivery delays; Azul is among carriers trimming flights to manage higher jet fuel prices. Food Prices Watch: FAO says global food prices were largely flat in May, with cereal and sugar gains offset by cheaper vegetable oils and dairy. Energy Security & BRICS: Iran’s envoy says BRICS is shaping global energy security, arguing the Global South is taking a bigger role in supply, investment and technology stability. World Cup Economy Angle: Brazil beat Egypt 2-1 in a World Cup warm-up, while Neymar hinted the tournament could be his “last dance,” adding to the event’s business and tourism pull.

US Tariff Shock Looms for Brazil: The Trump administration has proposed new tariffs on Brazil and more than 60 countries, with duties reaching up to 25%, reviving fears of higher import costs that could hit business investment, hiring, and consumer prices. Aviation Cargo Push: IATA is expanding cargo services across Latin America, including CASS Domestic in Mexico and CASS Export in Paraguay, with plans for Brazil—aimed at capturing regional air-freight growth. IATA AGM in Rio: Global aviation leaders are gathering in Rio for the IATA 82nd AGM and WATS, highlighting Brazil’s modernizing aviation sector and its role in jobs, tourism, and trade. Brazil’s Digital Payments Boost: Pix is strengthening Brazil’s digital payment ecosystem, challenging dominance fears as more merchants and users adopt faster, mobile-first transactions. Climate & Risk Watch: El Niño is forecast with high likelihood to affect Colombia, raising concerns for heat, water shortages, and food/energy strain—an example of how weather volatility can ripple into regional economies. World Cup Business Backdrop: With the 48-team tournament starting June 11, economists and industry observers are debating who benefits most from the spending surge—tourism, retail, and travel—while costs and logistics remain a concern.

Digital Payments in Focus: Brazil’s Pix keeps expanding, but cards are still far from fading. Abecs data show credit cards accounted for 35.1% of GDP in Q1 2026, while active payment cards rose from 324 million (2020) to 477 million by end-2025—suggesting Pix and card rails are growing side by side. World Cup Economy Angle: As the 2026 tournament kicks off, economists in a Reuters poll pick France to beat Spain for the title, while Brazil is flagged as a likely flop—highlighting how hard it is to forecast football outcomes even amid macro uncertainty. Trade & Compliance Watch: The U.S. is tightening pressure on Brazil through forced-labor and terrorism-related designations, raising new compliance risks for companies operating across borders. Culture & Business Climate: São Paulo Pride’s 30th anniversary arrives with fewer floats and weaker sponsorships, as right-wing attacks and global economic instability push brands to pull back.

US Terror Designations: The Trump administration’s terrorist label for Brazil’s PCC and Comando Vermelho took effect Friday, raising alarms in Brazil over sovereignty, and potential knock-on effects for tourism, investment, trade and the financial system. Brazil-US Trade Tensions: The same broader pressure campaign is also fueling political friction, with Brazil’s government warning the tariff threat could spill into key sectors. World Cup as Business Magnet: With the 2026 tournament starting June 11 across the US, Canada and Mexico, FIFA’s opening ceremonies are set to be split across host cities—turning culture into a major economic and branding play. LGBTQIA+ Rights Push: Brazil launched a campaign to publicize progress on LGBTQIA+ protections, citing BRL 61m invested since 2023 and support for shelter homes and training programs. Climate Urgency: World Environment Day on June 5 highlighted near-record heat and the need for faster emissions cuts and adaptation.

U.S.-Brazil Tariff Clash: Brazilian President Lula condemned new U.S. tariff moves as unacceptable and said the measures were communicated in a hostile, undiplomatic way, escalating trade tensions as Washington proposes forced-labor-linked duties. Brazil Cotton Market: Brazil cotton prices rose for a fourth straight month in May as growers held back 2024-25 stocks and export demand absorbed supply, though buyers stayed cautious amid pressure on textile margins. Food Inflation Watch: FAO reported world food prices slipped slightly in May, with vegetable oils falling while cereals and sugar rose, keeping prices near multi-year highs. Deforestation-Free Beef Push: China agreed to buy 50,000 tonnes of certified deforestation-free Brazilian beef by end-2027, signaling growing demand for traceable, forest-friendly supply chains. BRICS Culture & Ethics: BRICS Culture Working Group met in Varanasi to focus on the creative economy and ethical AI, including copyright and attribution standards. Aviation Cost Pressure: IATA’s upcoming meeting in Rio will tackle jet-fuel shocks tied to the Iran war, with airlines facing higher costs and delivery delays. World Cup Business Angle: The World Cup’s U.S.-Canada-Mexico opening ceremonies are set to be star-studded, while fan and taxpayer concerns keep the economic debate front and center.

US Tariff Shock Looms Over Brazil: The Trump administration proposed new forced-labor tariffs that could hit dozens of trading partners, with reporting also pointing to a potential 25% tariff on Brazilian imports—raising fresh uncertainty for Brazil’s exporters, including beef. Beef Market Watch: An ag economist warned the tariff threat could ripple through U.S. beef supply, where Brazil is a major source of trims and grinding cuts. Trade Tensions, Brazil Pushback: Lula and Brazilian officials are bracing for the tariff move and seeking alternative partners as the dispute escalates. Brazil Logistics Expansion: HGT and Imetame completed a joint venture to build and run a new container terminal in Aracruz, Espírito Santo, targeting mid-2028 operations and about 1.2 million TEU capacity. UN Economic Council Seats: Brazil won a seat on the UN Economic and Social Council for a three-year term starting Jan. 1, 2027, alongside other countries. Meta’s AI Agent Goes Global (Including Brazil): Meta expanded its Business Agent to help firms handle customer inquiries, scheduling, and recommendations across WhatsApp, Instagram and Messenger, with Brazil already among early markets.

US Tariff Shock Hits Brazil: President Lula said Brazil will “not bow” to a new US trade offensive after the USTR proposed 25% tariffs on Brazilian goods, adding the country will seek other partners if the US won’t buy. Ports & Agribusiness Deal: AD Ports Group agreed to buy a controlling stake in Brazil’s agri-bulk terminal operator CLI in an $835m deal, aiming to expand its agri-foods platform across Latin America. Renewables Bottleneck: BlackRock-backed Atlas Renewable Energy paused about $1bn in planned Brazil investment due to rising curtailment and repeated grid rejections. Crypto Regulation in Brazil: Brazil’s central bank added strict independent audit requirements for crypto licensing, tightening oversight of VASPs. World Cup Business Angle: FIFA’s expanded 48-team World Cup kicks off June 11 across North America, with Brazil among the favorites and major tourism spending expected for host cities. Gold Watch: Gold prices hit strong momentum as central bank buying and geopolitical uncertainty supported record highs, with Brazil among active buyers.

US Tariff Pressure on Brazil: Brazil’s Lula says the country will seek new partners after the USTR proposed a 25% tariff on many Brazilian imports under a Section 301 probe tied to issues including Pix, IP protection, anti-corruption enforcement and deforestation. Diplomatic Fallout: Lula escalated the fight, blaming the Bolsonaro family for lobbying Washington, as the US also moved to designate Brazil’s PCC and Comando Vermelho as terrorist organizations—raising compliance and political risks. Trade Snapshot: Brazil’s May trade surplus hit $7.8B, beating forecasts as export prices rose faster than volumes. Food & Climate Market Shift: China’s beef buyers began purchasing “Beef on Track” certified Brazilian beef aimed at cutting illegal deforestation and labor abuses. Business & Finance: UBS hosted Dauch Corp’s CFO update on post-acquisition integration and Brazil product extensions; PicS N.V. faces an investor-lawyer probe after a stock drop tied to higher expected credit losses. Global Policy Watch: The US also floated forced-labor tariffs on 60 economies, with Brazil included.

US Tariff Shock for Brazil: Washington is proposing fresh Section 301 duties tied to forced-labour claims, with Brazil named among countries facing a 12.5% levy—while Brazil’s government hit back, calling the move politically motivated and pointing to a long-running US trade surplus and low average US tariffs on Brazilian imports. Crypto Compliance in Brazil: Brazil is adding stricter audit requirements to its crypto licensing process, raising the bar for VASPs and compliance teams. Payments & Big Tech Moves: Amazon is pushing deeper into South Africa with Prime at R59/month, while Juspay and Mastercard expand Click to Pay partnerships across Asia. Brazil Business & Capital Markets: Macquarie and IG4 are selling controlling stakes in Brazil’s CLI to AD Ports for $835m, and BlackRock’s Atlas is freezing $1bn in Brazil renewables investments. World Cup Commerce: FIFA’s tournament is already driving major retail and brand spending, with Brazil’s squad departures getting high-profile “baptism” send-offs ahead of kickoff.

US Tariff Pressure on Brazil: The Trump administration proposed a 25% tariff on Brazilian imports under Section 301, citing “unreasonable” trade practices tied to digital rules, Pix payments, intellectual property, and ethanol market access, with broad exemptions and a July 15 deadline for responses. Diplomatic Fallout: Lula said he received the move “with indignation” and blamed U.S. hostility toward Latin America, including comments about Marco Rubio. Ethanol in the Crosshairs: USTR specifically pointed to Brazil’s ethanol tariff treatment and lack of reciprocal access for U.S. producers as a key trigger for penalties. Tourism Push to China: Brazil’s Tourism Ministry launched a Mandarin investment guide in Shanghai highlighting a roughly $4.5bn pipeline across hospitality, infrastructure, parks, cruises and nature tourism, aiming to attract Chinese travelers and investors. Energy & Jobs in Sergipe: After Petrobras pledged R$72.5bn for deepwater projects, Sergipe is setting up an economic development fund to diversify beyond oil and gas as production ramps toward 2030. World Cup Business Angle: Brazil tourism reported record jobs and rising travel revenues, while the World Cup is also expected to boost retail demand.

US-Brazil Trade Clash: The Trump administration is proposing a targeted 25% punitive tariff on many Brazilian imports after a Section 301 probe flagged issues in digital trade, electronic payments, IP protection, ethanol access and illegal deforestation—while excluding items like beef, coffee, rare earths and aircraft parts. Brazil-US Security Politics: The U.S. designated Brazil’s PCC and Red Command as terrorist organizations, a move analysts say is aimed at boosting political allies ahead of Brazil’s October election. AI Funding Watch: Alphabet plans to raise up to $80bn in equity to fund AI compute, underscoring how capital is piling into infrastructure even as investors question returns. Brazil Culture & Media: President Lula launched Tela Brasil, a free federal streaming platform for Brazilian productions, pitching culture as an engine for jobs and growth. Rare Earths & Batteries: St George Mining welcomed battery maker ATL onto its register via a $2m investment, boosting exposure to its Araxá rare earths and niobium project in Brazil. Agriculture Risk Management: India formed crop weather and crisis groups for kharif amid El Niño-linked below-normal monsoon fears, with fertiliser stocks and seed reserves monitored closely.

US Terror Designations: The US State Department says it will label Brazil’s CV and PCC as Foreign Terrorist Organizations from June 5, a move Brazil fears could raise sovereignty and complicate security cooperation. Brazil-China Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira heads to Beijing for talks with China’s vice-president and commerce chief, as trade hit $170.9bn in 2025. Circular Economy Push: A CNI survey finds 72% of Brazilians view sustainability positively, but 43% still won’t buy recycled products, citing quality and durability concerns. Rare Earth Supply Chain: Solvay and Viridis signed an LOI to source rare earth feedstocks from Brazil for processing in France starting in 2028. Agri-Exports & Trade Fairs: Brazil’s packaging machinery sector booked about $19.2m around Interpack 2026, while agricultural machinery makers generated $3.39m in business prospects at NAMPO Show 2026. World Cup Business: Brazil’s World Cup group includes Morocco, Haiti and Scotland, with 104 matches across North America. Health Research: A Brazilian study links TP53 mutations to worse lung cancer prognosis, using data from over 1,100 patients.

Ebola Watch: Brazil is investigating suspected Ebola cases after travelers returned from DR Congo and Uganda, with health authorities in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro running tests as officials warn diagnoses are still under review. Labor Policy: The ILO begins final talks in Geneva on binding employment standards for platform workers, with the key fight over whether minimum wage and benefits should apply to all workers or vary by employee vs self-employed status. Green Trade & Shipping: Brazil, Norway and the Netherlands presented a feasibility study for South Atlantic green shipping corridors, targeting deepsea routes between Europe and Brazil and assessing net-zero fuels like green ammonia and methanol. Open Finance: BIS and GLEIF showcased how Legal Entity Identifiers can streamline cross-border KYB/AML checks via open finance interconnectivity, aiming to cut onboarding friction for SMEs. Brazil Economy: Reports point to a mild Q1 rebound and growth pickup, while investors keep an eye on inflation and fiscal risks.